Infectiousness of smallpox relative to disease age: estimates based on transmission network and incubation period
Identifieur interne : 000E24 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000E23; suivant : 000E25Infectiousness of smallpox relative to disease age: estimates based on transmission network and incubation period
Auteurs : H. Nishiura [Allemagne, Japon] ; M. Eichner [Allemagne]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
This study investigated the infectiousness of smallpox relative to the onset of fever using a likelihood-based estimation procedure based on the observed transmission network (n=223) and on the distribution of the incubation period (n=379). Who-infected-whom information enabled us to back-calculate the infectiousness by disease age, employing a step function model for infectiousness. Frequency of secondary transmissions was highest between 3 and 6 days after onset of fever, yielding an expected daily frequency of 20·6% (95% CI 15·1–26·4) of the total number of secondary transmissions, which is consistent with previous observations. The estimated cumulative frequency suggests that 91·1% of secondary transmissions occurred up to 9 days after onset of fever. The proposed method appeared to be useful for diseases with an acute course of illness, where transmission was not hampered by depletion of susceptible contacts.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806007618
Affiliations:
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Infect.</title><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno><idno type="eISSN">1469-4409</idno><imprint><publisher>Cambridge University Press</publisher><pubPlace>Cambridge, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2007">2007</date><biblScope unit="volume">135</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1145">1145</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1150">1150</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">This study investigated the infectiousness of smallpox relative to the onset of fever using a likelihood-based estimation procedure based on the observed transmission network (n=223) and on the distribution of the incubation period (n=379). Who-infected-whom information enabled us to back-calculate the infectiousness by disease age, employing a step function model for infectiousness. Frequency of secondary transmissions was highest between 3 and 6 days after onset of fever, yielding an expected daily frequency of 20·6% (95% CI 15·1–26·4) of the total number of secondary transmissions, which is consistent with previous observations. The estimated cumulative frequency suggests that 91·1% of secondary transmissions occurred up to 9 days after onset of fever. The proposed method appeared to be useful for diseases with an acute course of illness, where transmission was not hampered by depletion of susceptible contacts.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Japon</li></country><region><li>Bade-Wurtemberg</li><li>District de Tübingen</li></region><settlement><li>Tübingen</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Bade-Wurtemberg"><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" sort="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="H." last="Nishiura">H. Nishiura</name></region><name sortKey="Eichner, M" sort="Eichner, M" uniqKey="Eichner M" first="M." last="Eichner">M. Eichner</name><name sortKey="Eichner, M" sort="Eichner, M" uniqKey="Eichner M" first="M." last="Eichner">M. Eichner</name></country><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" sort="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="H." last="Nishiura">H. Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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